The latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could significantly disrupt the supply and distribution of Russian oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday. The agency notes that "the full impact on the oil market and access to Russian supplies remains uncertain." These sanctions are likely to have a serious effect on global oil supplies, particularly in the short term.
The new round of sanctions has supported oil prices, along with expectations of possible weekly reductions in U.S. oil inventories. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, added, "Tankers carrying Russian oil appear to be struggling to unload their cargoes worldwide. This could lead to short-term supply constraints."
A key question for the market remains how much Russian supply will be lost on the global market and whether alternative supplies can make up for this shortfall. IG market strategist, Jap Jun Rong, noted that the consequences of the sanctions are still unclear, and it is uncertain whether other countries or methods will be able to cover the gaps that may arise.
Meanwhile, the market received support from the fall in crude oil inventories in the U.S. last week, according to market sources referencing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks increased by 5.4 million barrels, and distillates rose by 4.88 million barrels.
According to a Reuters survey, analysts had forecast a decline of about 1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks in the week ending January 10. The inventory data will be published later by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In addition to the current situation, on Tuesday the EIA revised its forecast for global oil demand in 2025, lowering it to 104.1 million barrels per day. However, oil and liquid fuels supply is forecast to remain at 104.4 million barrels per day. Experts also expect the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 to drop by 8% to $74 per barrel, and by 2026, to decrease to $66 per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is forecast to average $70 in 2025 and fall to $62 by 2026.
These indicators suggest a high level of uncertainty, driven both by sanctions and changes in the global oil market and demand. Meanwhile, the oil market will remain under pressure in both the short and medium term until all the consequences of changes in Russian oil supply and the economic situation in other countries become clearer.