Mergers and acquisitions in the first half of 2025 did not meet the expectations of investment bankers, but a surge in major deals in Asia and growing optimism in U.S. markets may pave the way for megadeals in the second half of the year.
According to market participants, uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s trade policies, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions held back activity. However, these factors have not derailed the anticipated boom in global M&A.
Trump’s tariff policy, launched on April 2 (nicknamed “Liberation Day”), cooled the markets and delayed several deals and IPOs to future quarters.
“We expected to see strong deal activity in the first half of 2025, but that didn’t happen,” said Tommy Rueger, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS. Dealogic ranks UBS 9th in ECM revenue between January 1 and June 27.
More than ten top bankers interviewed believe the worst turbulence is behind. New record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have renewed confidence in M&A recovery in H2.
“Many deals were paused, but they’re coming back,” said Ivan Farman, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America, which ranks 3rd in total investment banking revenue and 5th in M&A deals.
According to investors, a market rebound and softer antitrust policy under Trump are laying the groundwork for big transactions.
“The probability of deals worth over $50 billion has increased compared to last year,” said John Collins, global co-head of M&A at Morgan Stanley, ranked 4th by fees and 3rd by M&A deals.
From January 1 to June 27, deal volume hit $2.14 trillion — up 26% year-over-year. Much of the growth came from Asia, where deals more than doubled to $583.9 billion.
In North America, deal volume rose 17% to $1.04 trillion, according to Dealogic.
The VIX volatility index dropped to levels signaling stronger investor confidence.
“The situation is clearly stabilizing, paving the way for big deals. Investors are feeling more confident and are acting on it,” said Philippe Ross, vice chairman at Jefferies.
As markets stabilize, institutional investors return to equities, and companies are reviving IPO plans previously shelved.
“The past 3–4 weeks have created an incredibly favorable environment for new listings. We’re seeing a real surge in activity,” Rueger added.
Saadi Soudavar of Deutsche Bank (EMEA) concluded:
“Equity markets are showing a remarkable ability to ignore much of the tariff and geopolitical volatility.”