Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he does not plan to resign despite predictions that his ruling coalition will lose its majority in the upper house of parliament.
On Sunday, voters took part in tense elections held amid frustration with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition and its junior partner Komeito over rising prices and the threat of U.S. tariffs.
After the polls closed, Ishiba said he “solemnly accepts the harsh result” but is focusing on trade negotiations.
The ruling coalition already lost its majority in the influential lower house last year, and an expected defeat in these elections could further weaken its influence.
To maintain control of the 248-seat upper house, the coalition needs 50 seats. According to an exit poll by NHK, the coalition may win between 32 and 51 seats.
NHK also forecasted that “it may be difficult for the ruling coalition to keep a majority.”
Half of the seats in the upper house were up for election Sunday, with members serving six-year terms.
If the coalition wins fewer than 46 seats, it will be its worst result since its formation in 1999.
Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese studies at Kanda University of International Studies, told BBC News that the support of more right-wing parties has shrunk the conservative LDP’s support base.
“Many supporters of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe consider Ishiba not conservative enough,” he said. “They think he lacks the nationalist views on history and the strong stance against China that Abe had.”
Shinzo Abe was the LDP leader and Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, heading government twice — in 2006–2007 and 2012–2020.
Hall also noted that some voters have shifted to the Sanseito party, which now expresses views previously unheard in the upper house, including conspiracy theories, anti-foreign state rhetoric, and revisionist views of history.
Ishiba’s center-right party has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, though often with leadership changes.
The expected election outcome reflects voter frustration with Ishiba, who struggles to inspire confidence amid economic difficulties, a cost-of-living crisis, and complex trade talks with the U.S.
Many are unhappy about inflation, including rising rice prices, and a series of political scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years.
The last three LDP prime ministers who lost the upper house majority resigned within two months of defeat, and analysts predict a significant loss in these elections could lead to a similar outcome.
This could open the door for a leadership battle within the LDP among well-known figures such as Sanae Takaichi — runner-up to Ishiba in last year’s leadership election, Takayuki Kobayashi — former Minister of Economic Security, and Shinjiro Koizumi — son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
In any case, a leadership change in the ruling party will almost certainly cause political instability at a key moment in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan.
The coalition’s support was undermined by candidates from the small right-wing Sanseito party, which attracts conservative voters with anti-immigration rhetoric of “Japan above all.”
Sanseito gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic by spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines and global elites.
Their nationalist rhetoric increased their influence before the vote, as foreign resident and immigration issues became central in many parties’ campaigns.
Japan, known for strict immigration policies, has recently faced record growth in tourists and foreign residents.
Rising immigration has pushed prices up for Japanese citizens and contributed to a sense that foreigners are exploiting the country, increasing public dissatisfaction.
Against this background, last week Ishiba created a working group to address crimes or offensive behavior by some foreign nationals, particularly concerning immigration, land acquisition, and unpaid social insurance.